Angels try to gain some ground on Rangers

Baseball Betting Lines

07/30/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After struggling badly during one of their most challenging stretches of the season, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim now find themselves faced with what could be a make-or-break three-game series with the Texas Rangers that begins this evening at Angel Stadium.

The three-time defending division champion Angels trailed the Rangers by five games for first place in the American League West when they entered a critical 12-game sequence against the New York Yankees, Texas and Boston on July 20. That deficit has since grown, as Anaheim has lost seven of the first nine tests of this portion of the schedule and enters tonight's showdown mired in a four-game losing streak.

With the Rangers defeating Oakland last night, Texas now holds a comfortable nine-game advantage on the third-place Angels in the division standings.

The Angels could have an even tougher climb after the team sustained a key injury prior to Wednesday's game with the Red Sox. Starting pitcher Joel Pineiro suffered a left oblique strain while warming up prior to the contest, and the 10-game winner is expected to be sidelined between six-to-eight weeks.

"Halfway through my warmup I threw a curveball and it felt like a cramp," said Pineiro. "Just a freak thing to happen, I can't explain it. It's really frustrating and when I heard how long I'll be out, my heart sunk to the ground."

With Pineiro unavailable, Boston completed a three-game series sweep with a 7-3 victory on Wednesday, with Marco Scutaro belting a tie-breaking grand slam off reliever Fernando Rodney in the top of the eighth inning.

Scot Shields made an emergency start in Pineiro's place and allowed a pair of runs in just 1 2/3 innings, but relievers Francisco Rodriguez and Rich Thompson combined for five frames of one-run ball to keep the Angels in the game. The Red Sox loaded the bases against Rodney (4-1) with none out in the eighth, however, and Scutaro smacked a 1-2 pitch just inside the left-field foul pole to break a 3-3 deadlock.

Reggie Willits went 2-for-3 with an RBI single for Anaheim, which had lost three of four bouts with the Rangers in Texas prior to the Boston series.

The Angels' lone victory in the Texas series came with Ervin Santana on the mound, and the hard-throwing right-hander will attempt to duplicate last Saturday's effort when he takes the ball this evening. The 2008 AL All-Star delivered eight excellent innings in Anaheim's 6-2 win that night, yielding solo homers to Michael Young and Nelson Cruz and just five hits total while striking out eight.

Santana also fired a seven-hit shutout against the Rangers last September in Anaheim and owns a 9-6 record in 17 career starts versus tonight's opponent, although he's registered a suspect 5.77 earned run average over the course of those games.

The native Dominican comes into tonight's clash having worked at least seven innings in four straight starts and has posted a 2.30 ERA during that solid stretch. Santana is just 1-2 over that span, however, as the Angels have scored two runs or less in three of the four games.

Santana may have to be on top of his game again tonight, with the Rangers slated to send out the still-unbeaten Tommy Hunter. The surprising young righty ran his season record to 8-0 in Sunday's 6-4 win over the Angels, a game in which he surrendered three runs on only three hits in 6 1/3 innings.

Hunter fired seven shutout innings and allowed just three hits in his previous start, an 8-0 besting of Detroit on July 20, and has registered an excellent 2.31 ERA in 10 games since joining the Texas rotation in early June. He's also the only pitcher in Rangers history to win his first eight decisions in a season.

The 24-year-old will be out to atone for one of the worst showings of his big league career when he toes the rubber tonight. Against the Angels in Anaheim last September, Hunter was tagged for seven runs (six earned) and seven hits before exiting after 2 1/3 innings of an 11-0 loss. In three lifetime starts versus the Halos, the Alabama product is 1-2 with a 7.24 ERA.

Texas extended its lead in the division by winning two of three tilts with second-place Oakland earlier in the week, including a 7-4 triumph in Thursday's rubber match. Michael Young went 4-for-4 with three runs scored to pace the Rangers' 14-hit attack, while teammate Josh Hamilton collected three hits to raise his AL-leading average to .362.

Taylor Teagarden added a two-run homer and David Murphy had a solo shot to help the Rangers record their 10th victory in their last 14 games. Ex-Angel Vladimir Guerrero also knocked in two runs on the evening.

Texas outfielder Nelson Cruz contributed an RBI single to Thursday's win and extended his hitting streak to 17 games. The standout slugger is batting .400 (28-for-70) with three homers and 17 RBI during his career-best tear.

The Rangers added another proven bat to their already-potent offense prior to last night's game, acquiring infielder Jorge Cantu from Florida in exchange for a pair of minor league pitchers. The 28-year-old, who hit .262 with 10 homers and 54 RBI for the Marlins this season, is expected to serve as Texas' primary first baseman.

Texas has prevailed in six of the nine previous meetings between these AL West rivals, but is just 2-5 in its last seven visits to Angel Stadium.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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