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01/27/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Minnesota Timberwolves were able to snap a 16-game losing streak to the San Antonio Spurs when the two clubs met in early January and shoot for a rare win streak in the series tonight at the Target Center.
The Timberwolves finally got the best of the Spurs with a 106-96 victory on Jan. 2 in Minneapolis thanks to 24 points and 15 rebounds from Kevin Love, while Michael Beasley and Luke Ridnour both had 19 points. They had not defeated the Spurs since January 3, 2007, but have still lost 21 of the last 23 meetings between the two clubs.
San Antonio lost guard Manu Ginobili in that one with a fractured fifth metacarpal in his left hand and is 10-2 in the previous 12 contests in the Twin Cities. The Wolves have still lost 14 in a row in the Alamo City.
Minnesota is in the midst of a tough schedule and will play the Spurs, Lakers, Rockets and Pacers in succession. It has split the last four games against the Clippers, Jazz, Rockets and Mavericks, and recorded a 105-90 triumph at Dallas the last time out on Wednesday behind 31 points and 10 boards from Love, who inked a contract extension prior to the game. He has posted 17 double-doubles this season and helped Minnesota stop a two-game slide and win for the fifth time in eight tries.
"It was a good day," said Love. "I wanted to put everything aside that happened off the court and really wanted to focus on the game tonight.
Ricky Rubio added 17 points and 12 assists, and Wayne Ellington scored 16 points for the Timberwolves, who are 4-6 as the host and last in the Northwest Division standings. The Wolves will play two straight and three of the next four games at the Target Center. Wolves guard Luke Ridnour (knee) is questionable for Friday's game.
San Antonio is just 2-6 away from home this season and will begin a three-game trek tonight against the Wolves, Mavericks and Grizzlies. It has won two straight and six of its last nine games, including Wednesday's 105-83 victory versus the Atlanta Hawks.
Matt Bonner and DeJuan Blair each scored 17 points for the Spurs, who improved to 10-1 at home this season and got 16 points from Tiago Splitter. Tony Parker added 15 points and seven assists, while reserve Danny Green had 10 points. The Spurs bench scored 51 points to make head coach Gregg Popovich happy.
"Our bench was fantastic," Popovich said. "A number of people came into the game and played good solid basketball both at the defensive and offensive ends."
Tim Duncan had just six points and grabbed 11 boards for a San Antonio squad that sits one game ahead of Dallas for Southwest supremacy. Duncan leads the team with five double-doubles this season. Parker holds the record for most points at the Target Center with 55 on Nov. 5, 2008 in a double-overtime win. He is averaging 21.3 points and 8.9 assists in his previous 10 games.
The Spurs are currently in the midst of playing 16 of 21 road games. They are currently 3-3 during that stretch, with four games on the road and two at the AT&T Center.
<< Cavs and Nets meet at The Q
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New Jersey Nets have yet to win consecutive games this
season. The Cleveland Cavaliers have done it just once.
Both teams will be trying to put together win streaks this evening at Quicken
Loans Arena.
The Nets have
<< Mavs hope to rebound with Jazz in town
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Celebrations don't seem to be agreeing with the Dallas
Mavericks and the reigning NBA champs are probably glad they can put the
ceremonies in the rearview mirror as they get ready to host the Utah Jazz.
The Mav
<< Nuggets aim to stay hot vs. Raptors
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The streaking Denver Nuggets aim for a sixth straight win
tonight when they host a Toronto team that expects to be without leading
scorer Andrea Bargnani.
The Nuggets are fresh off a brilliant 5-0 road trip tha
<< Blazers welcome Suns to Rip City
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Blazers haven't been much of a threat away from Rip
City this season but things have been far different when they are hitting the
hardwood in the Pacific Northwest.
Portland will shoot for its sixth straight win a
Wagner will play FBS school for first time >>
Staten Island, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Wagner College football program will
open its 2012 season at Florida Atlantic - the Seahawks' first game against a
Football Bowl Subdivision school.
Wagner announced an 11-game schedule on Friday, beg
Phillies sign OF Pierre >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Phillies on Friday inked
outfielder Juan Pierre to a minor-league contract with an invitation to spring
training.
The 34-year-old veteran finished 2011 with a .279 average, two home run
Inter aims to bounce back against Lecce >>
Lecce, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Inter Milan will attempt to get back to
winning ways on Sunday at Lecce after the club saw its eight-match winning
streak halted in the Coppa Italia by Napoli in midweek.
The 2-0 setback prevent
Raptors' Bargnani out with calf issue >>
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Toronto Raptors forward Andrea Bargnani will be
out for an undefined period of time after aggravating a previous calf injury.
The 26-year-old suffered a strained left calf back on January 11 and missed
six
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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