Hoffpauir's first career hit, Pujols' slam lifts Cards over Reds

Baseball Betting Lines

07/03/2009 - Cincinnati, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jarrett Hoffpauir came through in a big way in his major league debut, hitting the go-ahead two-run single in the ninth inning, lifting St. Louis to a 7-4 win over Cincinnati, in the opener of a three-game series.

Albert Pujols continued his incredible season, belting his club record fourth grand slam of the season in the eighth inning and knocking in five runs over the final two frames, as the Cardinals began a 10-game road trip with their third straight win. Fresh off being named NL Player of the Month, Pujols upped his major league-leading totals to 31 homers and 82 RBI.

Jerry Hairston Jr. had three hits and an RBI for the Reds, who had won four of five coming into the weekend.

Reds starter Homer Bailey had a spectacular outing, yielding three hits and two runs over 7 1/3 innings, while St. Louis' Joel Pineiro allowed eight hits and three runs -- two earned -- in seven frames.

Nick Masset was on the mound for the top of the ninth, but left after taking a ball of his arm. Danny Herrera (1-4) then relieved Masset and retired Joe Thurston on a pop-up, but Colby Rasmus and Brendan Ryan singled and Skip Schumaker was safe on an error by shortstop Paul Janish, a ball that he couldn't handle on a short hop.

Then, in his first official big league at-bat, Hoffpauir smacked a soft liner to left field. Hoffpauir, a sixth-round draft pick by the Cardinals in 2004, was called up Wednesday from Triple-A Memphis and became the 15th rookie to appear with St. Louis this year.

Pujols then greeted reliever Carlos Fisher with an RBI double down the left- field line.

It was a tenuous bottom of the ninth, but Ryan Franklin was able to pick up his 20th save of the year. Edwin Encarnacion doubled with one out, and Willy Taveras walked with two down, putting runners at the corners. Joey Votto walked before Brandon Phillips struck out to end the game.

The win also moved the Cardinals into sole possession of first place in the National League Central Division, one game ahead of Milwaukee.

Chris Dickerson doubled leading off the bottom of the first. Taveras bunted for a hit and Dickerson scored on a throwing error from third baseman Thurston.

After Schumaker singled and Chris Duncan walked to start the game, Bailey retired 13 consecutive hitters hitting pegging Thurston with a pitch in the fifth.

There was also a scare for Hairston, who slid into a slab of cement at the bottom of the padded fence trying to chase a foul ball near the dugout in the third inning. Hairston then robbed Pujols of a hit with a diving grab in the fourth.

Cincinnati expanded the margin to 3-0 in the sixth. Phillips doubled in Taveras and scored on a Hairston base hit to center.

The Cardinals finally pushed ahead in the eighth after getting Bailey out of the game. Rasmus led off with a single and Schumaker walked with one out. Arthur Rhodes came in from the bullpen and threw four consecutive balls to pinch-hitter Hoffpauir.

David Weathers came in to face Pujols, who creamed a 2-2 pitch over the wall on a line drive to left-center field. The hit came just after a foul ball went out of the reach of Votto.

It was the 350th homer of his career and 10th career grand slam. He's also now 10-for-19 with three homers and nine RBI lifetime against Weathers.

Before this game, the Reds bullpen hadn't allowed a run since last Friday and a homer since June 20, a stretch of 31 2/3 innings.

Votto and Phillips singled off Josh Kinney to start the bottom of the eighth. Dennys Reyes entered to face Jay Bruce, who put down his first career sacrifice bunt, and Ramon Hernandez tied the game with a sacrifice fly to center off reliever Jason Motte (3-2). Phillips made it to third on the play, but was left stranded when Hairston struck out.

Game Notes

Encarnacion was activated from the 60-day disabled list. He had been on the DL since late April due to a chip fracture in his left wrist. The Reds opened a roster spot for Encarnacion by placing infielder Danny Richar on the 15-day DL with a torn labrum in his left shoulder...This was Bailey's longest outing of his career...It was Pineiro's first no-decision of the season.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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Academy Award Betting Odds for Best Picture Offer Great Value

If there is any category that is not an obvious win for any one nominee in this year's Academy Awards, it would be for Best Picture.  Sure the Departed is a 5/7 favorite, but that's hardly anything when we look at Helen Mirren and her "out-of-reach" 1 to 40 odds (which means you would win a whopping $1 for every $40 bet).

For value, take a look at MySportsbook.com Oscars betting odds on my personal favorite, The Queen - a remarkable 12 to 1 long shot.  The film hasn't won any pre-awards for Best Picture (compared to The Departed and Little Miss Sunshine), but there is a tremendous following and it is a strong enough film to warrant a surprise win.

TV Guide advises Oscar watchers should be cautioned not to discount the  drama "Babel" with its strong social themes about overcoming communication gaps among people of different cultures.

"While 'Babel' lost several guild awards to 'Sunshine' and 'Departed,'  it still enjoys loyal support, and historically Oscar voters favor dramas with social messages over comedies like 'Sunshine' and violent crime movies like 'Departed'."

"It hasn't done well in the guilds, which means there isn't much industry support," said Tom O'Neil of awards site TheEnvelope.com, "But several critics are expecting it to win, and that gets my attention." Babel had 7 to 2 odds at press time.

Who is to say independently produced Little Miss Sunshine won't be this year's Crash.  Last year, Crash won for Best Motion Picture, shocking those who bet on gay cowboy flick, Brokeback Mountain, as the favorite to win. 

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