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07/22/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sean Marshall will square off against the Arizona Diamondbacks for the first time in his career this afternoon when the Chicago Cubs wrap a three-game set with Arizona at Wrigley Field.
Marshall is also winless in his last three starts overall this season. After taking a loss against Milwaukee on June 30, the left-hander has turned in two straight outings of two-run ball, but has gotten a no-decision each time. That includes a six-inning performance against the Giants on Tuesday.
Marshall is 4-3 on the year with a 3.43 earned run average.
Yusmeiro Petit will make his fifth start of the season today for Arizona and is coming off a loss last time out on Tuesday. Versus Milwaukee, the young right-hander limited the Brewers to three runs (two earned) on eight hits over five frames, but it wasn't enough in the 3-2 setback.
Petit, who is 1-2 on the season with a 3.22 ERA, faced Chicago once in relief while with Florida last season and pitched a hitless frame against them.
After dropping the series opener on Friday, the Diamondbacks rebounded with a 3-2 victory on Saturday, as Stephen Drew hit a go-ahead home run in the eighth inning to pace his team to victory.
Orlando Hudson went 3-for-5 with an RBI and Chris Young scored twice for the Diamondbacks, who had lost five of six before the win and are 4 1/2 games off the pace in the National League West.
Arizona starter Micah Owings lasted just four innings after giving up two runs on four hits. Juan Cruz (4-1) took over for Owings and pitched three no-hit innings to earn up the win. Jose Valverde worked around a one-out walk in the ninth to pick up his 29th save of the season.
Angel Pagan hit a two-run triple for the Cubs, who had a three-game winning streak halted while losing for just the second time on a 10-game homestand (7-2).
The second-place club remains 2 1/2 games behind Milwaukee for first in the NL Central.
Rich Hill pitched six innings, yielding two runs -- one earned -- on six hits with six strikeouts and four walks. Bob Howry (5-5) allowed Drew's homer to take the loss.
Arizona has had recent success against Chicago. It won four of six against the Cubs in 2006, and is 14-7 against them since the start of the 2004 season.
<< Orioles, Athletics conclude set in Oakland
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Losers of two of their last three, the Baltimore Orioles
conclude their West Coast swing this afternoon at McAfee Coliseum as they face
off against the Oakland Athletics in the finale of a three-game set.
On Saturday night
<< Twins go for sweep of Angels
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Losers of two straight and five of the last six, the LA
Angels of Anaheim try to salvage a win as they close out a three-game set
against the Minnesota Twins at the Metrodome this afternoon.
On Saturday Joe Mauer produced
<< A-Rod tries to inch closer to 500 homers as Yanks host Rays
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Shooting for their third straight victory, the New York
Yankees close out a four-game set against division rival Tampa Bay this
afternoon at Yankee Stadium.
After being crushed in the series opener on Friday night by a sco
<< Marines, Blue Jays try to get offenses going at Rogers Centre
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Shut out for the fourth time this season, the Seattle
Mariners try to bounce back this afternoon as they challenge the Toronto Blue
Jays in the finale of a three-game set at the Rogers Centre.
On Saturday the Seattle offen
Pirates wrap set with Astros at PNC Park >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Houston Astros conclude a nine-game road trip this
afternoon when they play the rubber match of a three-game series with the
Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park.
On Saturday, Jason Bay and Adam LaRoche both drove in two run
Byrd is the word: Rangers try for split with Indians >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Having snapped a three-game slide on Saturday, the Texas
Rangers close out a four-game set against the Cleveland Indians tonight at
Rangers Ballpark in Arlington.
Marlon Byrd erupted for five RBI, matching a career-high, a
Giants, Brewers wrap anticipated set in Milwaukee >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Milwaukee Brewers will get one last look at Barry Bonds
at home this season when they try to avoid a three-game sweep at the hands of
the San Francisco Giants this afternoon at Miller Park.
The Brewers came into this s
Unpack your bags: Rockies conclude road swing against Nats >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Colorado Rockies will try to end their road trip on a
positive note when they play the final contest of a four-game series this
afternoon with the Washington Nationals at RFK Stadium.
The Rockies have lost two of three
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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