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03/09/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Of all the games the Vancouver Canucks have played on their NHL-record 14-game road trip, tonight's contest with the Colorado Avalanche could be the most important.
Northwest Division-leading Vancouver will try to extend its two-point edge over second-place Colorado in the standings when the clubs clash Tuesday night at Pepsi Center.
The Canucks are 7-5-0 thus far on their swing, including wins in three of four since the Olympic break. Vancouver's 4-2 victory over Nashville gave the franchise its 40th win in 65 games, the fastest the club has ever reached that mark in team history.
Still, Vancouver leads Colorado by just two points but has outscored the Avalanche 16-7 in winning three of the four meetings this year. That includes an 8-2 triumph when the team's last met at Pepsi Center on November 14. Henrik Sedin notched his first career hat trick in that win, the Canucks' third in their last four trips to Colorado.
Sedin was one of four goal scorers in Sunday's win over Nashville, as his empty-net tally capped a three-goal third period to complete the rally. Mikael Samuelsson netted his career-high 24th goal of the game and Jannik Hansen had the game-winner with 5:42 left in the third.
It marked the NHL-leading ninth time the Canucks have won after trailing at the beginning of the third period.
Samuelsson, who scored 23 goals with Detroit in 2005-06, has scored in three straight and five of his last six games, while teammate Ryan Kesler had an assist to run his point streak to nine games (5 goals, 5 assists).
"We got some lucky breaks [Sunday]," said Samuelsson. "You know, sometimes those breaks go the other way, but tonight they went our way and we were able to get the win."
Roberto Luongo made 33 stops for Vancouver, which ends its epic swing Wednesday in Phoenix before returning home on Saturday for the first time since January 27.
Colorado plays the middle portion of a three-game homestand tonight and won for the sixth time in nine games with a 7-3 triumph over St. Louis on Saturday. Chris Stewart led the Avs' highest single-game goal output this season with his first career hat trick, capping the feat on a penalty shot.
"It's always big when you get your first NHL hat trick," said Stewart, who also had an assist and was named the NHL's First Star of the Week on Monday after totaling five goals and four assists in four games. "But more importantly we got the win. It was a big two points we nabbed [Saturday]."
Colorado, which had lost three of four coming in, has won six of seven and 10 of its last 13 as the host.
Milan Hejduk, who had missed the last 17 games due to knee and back ailments, scored a pair of goals and T.J. Galiardi had a goal and two assists. Craig Anderson had 39 saves in the win.
Defenseman Ruslan Salei left the contest with a torso injury in the second period, putting his status for tonight in doubt. Fellow blueliner Kyle Cumiskey is expected to play tonight for the first time since February 12, however. He had missed the last five games due to a head injury.
<< Habs return home to face Lightning
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Having just completed a successful road trip, the Montreal
Canadiens will play for the first time at the Bell Centre in nearly a month
when the playoff hopefuls host the Tampa Bay Lightning this evening.
Montreal began its
<< Jazz open trek against Bulls
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The surging Utah Jazz hope to keep the pressure on
Northwest Division-leading Denver when they begin a four-game road trip in the
Windy City against a reeling Chicago Bulls team.
Traditionally the Jazz don't per
<< Flyers try to continue mastery of Isles
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Flyers will be attempting to extend their
current home winning streak in tonight's matchup with a New York Islanders
team they've dominated over the past few seasons from the Wachovia Center.
The Flyers ha
<< Blazers welcome Kings to Rose Garden
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Portland Trail Blazers hope to bounce back from one of
their worst defensive performances of the season tonight when they take on the
Sacramento Kings at the Rose Garden.
Carmelo Anthony posted 30 points on Sunday to
Ducks hope to end slide in matchup with slumping Jackets >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Anaheim Ducks know that their current seven-game
homestand might represent their best chance to get back into the playoff
picture. However, after a less-than-stellar start to the residency, they
should be happy to see the
Yankee Stadium bowl game to be called Pinstripe Bowl >>
Bronx, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The new college football bowl game to be held at
Yankee Stadium starting in 2010 will be called the Pinstripe Bowl, with New
Era as the title sponsor.
Last September, the Yankees announced the bowl game th
2010 Western Athletic Conference Tournament Preview >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Hawaii Warriors may have the most
Western Athletic Conference Tournament titles with three, the last coming in
2002, but this year the islanders aren't even invited to the party as the 27th
annual event k
Where do the Twins go from here? >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - You could almost hear a collective groan this morning, from
Minneapolis all the way down to Fort Myers, as the news began to circulate that
Minnesota Twins closer Joe Nathan could be lost for the season because of a
torn liga
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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