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09/28/2011 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's been five years since the Carolina Hurricanes won their one and only Stanley Cup, and those years have not been kind to the franchise.
In fact, the Hurricanes have made the postseason just once since Rod Brind'Amour, whose number is now retired, lifted hockey's most celebrated trophy in the spring of 2006.
Carolina didn't miss the playoffs by much in 2010-11, finishing two points behind the New York Rangers for the East's eighth and final berth.
But last season wasn't all bad for Carolina and the brightest spot had to be the fantastic debut season of 18-year-old scoring sensation Jeff Skinner, who won the Calder Trophy as the league's top rookie. The seventh overall pick of the 2010 draft has since had his 19th birthday and is hoping to avoid a sophomore slump.
Of course, head coach Paul Maurice still has Eric Staal centering the top line and Cam Ward manning the crease, and general manager Jim Rutherford added offensive defenseman Tomas Kaberle to the mix this summer, signing him to a lucrative three-year deal.
The problem lies in Carolina's lack of overall depth and that issue could cause them to fall short of the postseason once again.
FORWARDS - Staal mirrors Carolina's post-Cup era in that his best statistical season as an NHLer came in that championship campaign of over five years ago.
Staal recorded 100 points on the nose in 2005-06, posting career bests in both goals (45) and assists (55). Considering the 26-year-old has averaged 34 goals and nearly 75 points a year since then, it's not like the ensuing years have been bad, but a return to the century mark would obviously make a huge difference for the 'Canes.
Last year, Carolina's captain potted 33 goals and handed out 43 assists over 81 games.
Meanwhile, Skinner made the jump from juniors to the NHL look easy, finishing second on the team in goals (31) and points (63) while skating in all 82 games. With no earth-shattering additions to the club's scoring power this offseason, the Hurricanes will likely need Skinner to at least duplicate last year's numbers if they are to be a postseason threat in 2011-12.
Skinner did not skate with Staal for the most part last season and all signs point to Maurice maintaining that strategy this year. Skinner played well with Tuomo Ruutu at center and the versatile Finn expects to skate in the middle again this year. After all, the 28-year-old Ruutu's 57 points (19 goals, 38 assists) last season were a career-high.
However, Maurice could try numerous combinations on the top-two lines, he could even put Ruutu on the right wing alongside Staal and left winger Jussi Jokinen and have Brandon Sutter center the second line with Skinner and offseason signee Anthony Stewart.
Jokinen figures to be the club's top left winger since Erik Cole departed for Montreal this summer. The 28-year-old Finn had 30 goals and 65 points two years ago, but last season saw his production dip to 19 markers and 52 points.
The 22-year-old Sutter, who is the son of Calgary head coach Brent Sutter, also took a small step back in 2010-11. He had 21 goals and 40 points in 72 games in 2009-10 and 14 goals and 29 points while playing all 82 games last year.
Stewart and fellow winger Alex Ponikarovsky were Carolina's biggest offensive acquisitions in the offseason. Stewart, 26, registered 14 goals and 25 assists in 80 games for Atlanta, while Ponikarovsky, a three-time 20-goal scorer with Toronto, had just five goals and 10 assists in 61 games with Los Angeles. Ponikarovsky has spent time on the top line with Jokinen and Staal in the preseason.
The Hurricanes could also use rookie Zac Dalpe on a full-time basis this year. The second-round pick from the 2008 draft can play center or wing and Carolina thinks he projects as a solid two-way player at the NHL level. The 21-year-old had three goals and one assists in 15 games with Carolina in 2010-11.
The remainder of Carolina's forward spots will feature players like winger Chad LaRose (16 goals in 2010-11) and centerman Tim Brent, who recorded 20 points (8g, 12a) in 79 games for Toronto last season. Brent is also a skilled penalty killer and can help in the faceoff circle.
DEFENSE - For a team that finished 24th in the league on the power play last season, signing two offensive defensemen to lucrative deals was not an awful idea, but those decisions didn't make Carolina's blue line a real strength either.
Kaberle, who signed a three-year, $12.75 million with the 'Canes, is 33 years old and is still a skilled playmaker, but his best days as a strong two-way player are clearly in the rearview mirror. Still, he recorded four goals and 43 assists in 82 combined games with Toronto and Boston last year and also added 11 assists to help the Bruins win the Stanley Cup.
The 'Canes also re-signed defenseman Joni Pitkanen to a three-year, $13.5 million contract and he'll serve as the club's No. 1 defenseman once again. Pitkanen, who had five goals and 30 assists last year, is a big and a smooth- skater, but he also has his share of defensive lapses.
Jamie McBain also turned in an impressive rookie season, even if he was overshadowed by the phenom Skinner. McBain recorded seven goals and 23 assists in 76 games, but also was a minus-eight. The 23-year-old Minnesotan is a key for Carolina this season, as a step forward or backwards could make a big difference for the club's postseason chances.
The rest of Carolina's blue line feature little in the way of offensive upside, but Tim Gleason averaged nearly 21 minutes of ice time a night for the 'Canes last year. Gleason is Carolina's best stay-at-home guy and is a good fit for Pitkanen, leaving Maurice with a second pairing of McBain and Kaberle.
Bryan Allen and Derek Joslin are expected to fill out the defensive rotation.
GOALTENDING - Ward was a rookie when Carolina won it all in 2006, and while he's never quite reached the heights of that Conn Smythe-winning spring, at 27 years old he should be entering his prime.
After battling back issues that limited him to just 47 games in 2009-10, Ward set a career mark last year with 74 games. He went 37-26-10 with a 2.56 goals- against average and an excellent .923 save percentage.
Assuming his back problems don't resurface, Ward will again be one of Carolina's biggest assets.
The Hurricanes also signed veteran Brian Boucher to a two-year deal, giving Ward a more experienced backup than Justin Peters, who the club feels still needs seasoning in the AHL.
Boucher had an eventful 2010-11 in Philadelphia, going 18-10-4 with a 2.42 GAA in the regular season and garnering seven starts in the playoffs. Barring injury, he will be called upon to do much less this year in Raleigh.
WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE - The Hurricanes have the basic framework for a winning club in place, but there is simply not enough depth to consider them as Cup contenders. Carolina finished third in the ever-improving Southeast Division and it's safe to bet the 'Canes will be looking up at Washington and Tampa Bay again this year. It's possible that they'll sneak into the playoffs, but a near-miss in the postseason department is more likely.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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