2009 Colonial Athletic Association Tournament Preview

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/05/2009 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 2009 Colonial Athletic Association Tournament will take place in Richmond, Virginia, beginning with the first round on Friday and wrapping up with Monday's title game.

The top four seeds each receive a bye for the opening round, and the winner of the tournament gets an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. Virginia Commonwealth grabbed the top seed after picking up its third consecutive CAA regular-season title. However, the Rams know all too well that they've got some more work to do, as they missed out on a NCAA Tournament invite last year after losing to fifth-seeded William & Mary in the semifinals. VCU is led by CAA Player of the Year candidate Eric Maynor, who leads the league in scoring (22.4 ppg), and also broke the school's career scoring record in the season finale. George Mason, last season's CAA Champion, has the No. 2 seed. The Patriots have won four of their last five games. The No. 3 seed belongs to the Northeastern Huskies, who faded a bit down the stretch, losing four of their final six games. The final first-round bye belongs to the fourth-seeded Old Dominion Monarchs, winners of five straight and nine of their last 10 overall.

Kicking off the first-round action will be the eighth-seeded Georgia State Panthers and ninth-seeded Delaware Blue Hens on Friday at noon. The winner gets a date with VCU in the quarterfinals on Saturday. Georgia State (11-19, 8-10 CAA) and Delaware (13-18, 6-12) split the season series. This marks the Panthers' highest seed since joining the CAA four years ago, as they closed out the regular season by winning four of their final five games. Leading the way for Georgia State is guard Joe Dukes, who averages 12.3 ppg to go along with 4.4 rpg and 4.4 apg. He is complemented in the backcourt by Trae Goldston (11.0 ppg), the team's top three-point shooter at 34.6 percent. Shooting hasn't exactly been the team's strong point throughout the season. They are putting up just 60.8 ppg on 42.1-percent shooting from the floor. They've even struggled at the free-throw line, shooting just 61 percent.

Delaware has gone with the same starting lineup for all but two games this season, and while four of those players are scoring in double figures and logging 30-plus minutes per game, the team doesn't have a whole lot of depth beyond that. Marc Egerson is averaging 15.5 ppg and 10.4 ppg, and he is also a 39-percent shooter from beyond the arc. Jawan Carter is good for two three- pointers per game (34.1 percent) and is averaging 15.3 ppg. Other key contributors include Alphonso Dawson (14.2 ppg) and Brian Johnson (10.2 ppg). As a team, the Blue Hens are knocking down 7.4 threes per game, though they attempt more than 20 per game, which also waters down their field-goal percentage a bit (41.7 percent).

Game two pits the fifth-seeded Hofstra Pride against the 12th-seeded UNC- Wilmington Seahawks. The winner will advance to face fourth-seeded Old Dominion in quarterfinal action. Hofstra (20-10, 11-7) and UNCW (7-24, 3-15) played a pair of tightly-contested games in the regular season. The Pride notched a two-point victory at UNCW on Jan. 28, then beat the Seahawks in overtime in the season finale this past Saturday. In fact, it marked the fourth straight season these two played in an overtime game.

Hofstra was able to reach the 20-win mark for the fourth time in the past five seasons, thanks largely to guard Charles Jenkins (19.2 ppg). One of only two sophomores in school history to eclipse 1,000 points, Jenkins recorded a career-high 35 points on Saturday, including what turned out to be the game- clinching bucket late in overtime. His previous career-high was 33 points, set against those same Seahawks in late-January. Cornelius Vines is scoring 10.6 ppg on the season.

As for UNCW, the offense filters mostly through Chad Tomko, who leads the team with 15.8 ppg. A 31.8-percent shooter from beyond the arc, Tomko launches an average of nearly eight three-point attempts per game. Johnny Wolf (13.7 ppg), a 34.3-percent shooter from beyond the arc, also gets plenty of looks in the back court. In the low post, Dominique Lacy is averaging 10.6 ppg and 6.0 rpg. However, the Seahawks are often at a disadvantage on the boards, as they are a -6.9 in rebounding margin this season. And while they do have a few guys who can score, defensive stops have been few and far between, with opponents putting up 83.7 ppg and shooting 50.7 percent from the floor. Still, you can't sleep on a program that has more tournament wins than any other school in the CAA.

Seventh-seeded James Madison (18-13, 9-9) will take on the 10th-seeded William & Mary Tribe (10-19, 5-13) in Game three of the first round. The winner moves on to face George Mason Saturday night. JMU swept the season series for the first time since 1999-2000. Last year, William & Mary lost to George Mason in the CAA Championship game. So, while the Tribe enter this year's conference tourney as the 10th-seed, they've got some players who have proven they know what it takes to win in postseason play. The Tribe prefer to slow the tempo down and operate out of their half-court offense. They've held opponents to 63.2 ppg, but are scoring just 61.9 ppg and shooting 41.5 percent as a team. Guards David Schneider and Danny Sumner headline this group. Schneider leads the team with 14.4 ppg and Sumner is scoring 13.2 ppg, though neither is shooting better than 40 percent from the floor. In fact, Schneider has taken more shots than any player on the team, but is shooting a rather ugly 34.7 percent from the floor.

As for the Dukes, they need to find a way to rebound after closing out the regular season with losses in three of their final four games. Juwann James leads JMU with 15.4 ppg despite starting only three games this season. He is shooting a scorching 59.4 percent from the floor. Kyle Swanston (11.9 ppg), Julius Wells (11.8 ppg) and Devon Moore (10.1 ppg) are each key figures in the offense. One of the team's main strengths is its foul shooting, as the Dukes have four players who rank in the top-six in the CAA in free-throw percentage. Should the game come down to the last few possessions, JMU has the advantage here.

In the night cap of Friday's first-round action, sixth-seeded Drexel will take on 11th-seeded Towson, with the winner advancing to face Northeastern in the quarterfinals. Drexel won both regular-season meetings against Towson. The Dragons (15-13, 10-8) rank dead-last in the CAA in field-goal percentage (37.9) and three-point percentage (29.7) although they rank second in field- goal percentage defense (39.6). The team sputtered down the stretch, losing three of its final four games. The Dragons closed out the season with a 48-47 loss to William & Mary, which followed up a 47-46 loss to Northeastern three days earlier. Scott Rodgers is the only player averaging double figures, with 13.8 ppg to go along with 5.0 rpg. He averages a team-high 12 shot attempts per game, and is shooting just 35.6 percent from the floor.

Towson (10-21, 5-13) didn't fare too well down the stretch, either, dropping four of its final five games. As a team, the Tigers are shooting just 40.1 percent from the floor and are being outscored by an average margin of 6.1 ppg. Still, they've got one of the league's top big men in Junior Hairston (12.7 ppg, 7.3 rpg). Josh Thornton is scoring 11.2 ppg and is a threat along the perimeter, where he has knocked down a team-high 74 three-pointers (36.5 percent). Jarrel Smith is tallying 10.4 ppg and 4.9 rpg and is the only player to have started all 29 games this season.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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NFL ODDSTop Football Betting Free Agents to Change Teams

NFL Betting

It’s time to see how the biggest NFL free agent signings will perform for their news teams. Some will work out and could be the difference that makes a difference in the win column.

We look at the best off-season signings and if they should influence your NFL betting this season. Julius Peppers – Peppers was the biggest prize available on the 2010 NFL free agent market and the Chicago Bears opened the bank to bring his talents to the south side.

Peppers is explosive, he can get around blockers and cause quarterbacks to lose their minds. We all remember the classic Peppers game last year against the Vikings where he hounded Brett Favre into his worst game of the season. Peppers joining the Bears could be the reason Favre retired for good Tuesday morning. In addition to Peppers, the Bears added Chester Taylor to back up Matt Forte, Forte didn’t have the same intensity in 2009 compared to 2008 and bringing in Taylor will challenge Forte to bring it every game or he’ll risk losing carries to Taylor.

Betting on the Bears is a good option this season because of Julius Peppers and to a lesser extent Taylor. Antonio Bryant and Terrell Owens – The Cincinnati Bengals signed two former number one wide receivers to line up with Chad Ocho Cinco. Antonio Bryant had a huge season in 2008 catching 83 passes for over 1200 yards but regressed last season. Playing for the Tampa Bay Bucs last season was a large part of the regression, everyone was bad in TB last season.

Bryant should have a bounce back season if he can win the number two spot from Terrell Owens. If Bryant wins the number 2 WR spot, it will open up a completely new set of problems for the Bengals. If Owens is forced to the bench in favor of Bryant, his attitude will create trouble for Carson Palmer and head coach Marv Lewis. If Owens is the number two receiver, it means Bryant can’t live up to his past numbers and the Bengals are still limited in the passing game. NFL bettors should be wary of laying their money down on what could potentially be the biggest gong show in the league in 2010. 2010 football betting lines for this can be found at this top online sportsbook. Karlos Danby – The Miami Dolphins have a great running back tandem in Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown, a good young QB in Chad Henne and now the Bill Parcells regime is building a solid defense.

NFL bettors should be wary of laying their money down on what could potentially be the biggest gong show in the league in 2010. Karlos Danby – The Miami Dolphins have a great running back tandem in Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown, a good young QB in Chad Henne and now the Bill Parcells regime is building a solid defense. They signed away the Arizona Cardinals top linebacker Karlos Danby. In the past two seasons, Danby has totaled 228 tackles, 5 sacks, 3 interceptions and 3 forced fumbles. The Dolphins are the forgotten team of the AFC East with the second longest odds to win the division but with the addition of Karlos Danby and a trade for WR Brandon Marshall makes the Miami Dolphins legitimate contenders in the AFC East and in the NFL’s Eastern Conference.

The Dolphins will make NFL wagering fans a lot of money this season, get in early and enjoy the cash.

NFL Wagering

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