2009 America East Conference Tournament Preview

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/05/2009 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - There are nine members of the America East Conference, and all nine are set to participate in the 30th-annual America East Conference Tournament. The prize awarded to the winner of this event is a bid to the NCAA Tournament, and considering the fact that a team from this league is highly unlikely to ever earn an at-large dance ticket, this four-day event figures to pulsate with intensity.

Boston University has five AEC titles to its credit and a 38-24 all-time record at this event, but the Terriers, who are seeded third this season, haven't won this tourney since 2002. Vermont has captured three championships, and the second-seeded Catamounts figure to have a good shot at adding to the total. Albany is seeded seventh, so the odds of the club winning this event for a third time seem unlikely. As for UMBC, the defending champion, it is seeded sixth. The top seed is Binghamton, which is one of five league members never to win this tournament.

After the first round, quarterfinal round and semifinal round are played in consecutive days from Friday the 6th through Sunday the 8th, the championship game will not take place until Saturday the 14th, adding to the drama. While the first three rounds will take place at SEFCU Arena in Albany, New York, the title game will be held at the home venue of the highest remaining seed.

The first round on Friday pits the eighth-seeded Maine Black Bears against the ninth-seeded Hartford Hawks. These two teams split a pair of meetings during the regular season, and both of those contests were highly competitive. Hartford has won only six games all season and ranks last in the conference in both scoring offense (60.3 ppg) and scoring defense (70.5 ppg). The team has gotten dominated on the boards all season, as it is being outrebounded by nearly seven boards per contest. As for Maine, it closed out the season with four consecutive losses and figures to carry little confidence into this event. The Black Bears rank eighth in the nine-team league in turnover margin and have to take good care of the ball on Friday to advance.

The first of four quarterfinal games on Saturday the 7th pits the second- seeded Vermont Catamounts against the seventh-seeded Albany Great Danes. Albany lost seven of its last eight regular season games but did manage to beat Vermont in one of the two matchups between the teams. The Great Danes are the best free throw shooting team in the AEC and are also tops in the conference in rebounding margin, pulling down 8.4 rpg more than the opposition. Vermont is the league's top scoring team, as it is generating 77.8 ppg. Mike Trimboli (16.3 ppg), Marqus Blakely (15.7 ppg, 9.0 rpg) and Colin McIntosh (13.2 ppg) provide the Catamounts with a tremendous trio.

Third-seeded Boston University and sixth-seeded UMBC will battle in another quarterfinal clash. Boston University boasts the league's third and fourth leading scorers in John Holland and Corey Lowe, who are generating 18.0 ppg and 16.6 ppg, respectively. The Terrier, who beat UMBC in both regular season meetings, are knocking down a league-leading 8.8. three-pointers per contest and rely heavily on their perimeter shooting. As for UMBC, it has not played nearly as well as fans hoped heading into this campaign, but the team always has a chance to win thanks to the presence of Darryl Proctor (20.0 ppg). The Retrievers, by contrast with the Terriers, are last in the league in three- pointers made, as they are knocking down only 3.7 shots per contest from behind the arc.

The winner of the first-round game between Hartford and Maine will take on top-seeded Binghamton in the quarterfinal round. The Bearcats won a share of the regular season title for the first time in their 63 years of existence, a tremendous accomplishment for the program. The club is 20-8 overall and posted a 13-3 mark against AEC opposition, including wins in all four of its matchups with Hartford and Maine. D.J. Rivera is a gifted scorer who leads the conference with 20.2 ppg. Rivera's squad doesn't lead the AEC in an major statistical category, surprising for a top seed, but the Bearcats do most things well and simply know how to win.

The fourth and final matchup of the quarterfinal round pits the fourth-seeded New Hampshire Wildcats against the fifth-seeded Stony Brook Seawolves. New Hampshire did win both regular season matchups with Stony Brook, the most recent of which was decided by one point in overtime last week. The Wildcats are second in the conference in scoring defense but second to last in scoring offense. They are last in free throw percentage, a stat that is definitely concerning since this quarterfinal game figures to be close. As for Stony Brook, it is tops in the league in scoring defense, limiting opponents to 60.4 ppg. The Seawolves also lead the AEC in steals and turnover margin, but it remains to be seen if they will be able to generate enough offense to defeat the Wildcats.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.